Trump-Xi Summit Produces Hormuz Agreement — Bessent Says China Will Pressure Iran, Wright Predicts Strait Reopens By Summer

The New Development: Washington Is Betting on Beijing

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC's Joe Kernen on Thursday that China will use its influence on Iran to push for a Hormuz reopening. His exact words: "I think they will be working behind the scenes to the extent anyone has any say over the Iranian leadership."

The U.S. is essentially conceding it cannot force Iran's hand alone — and needs Xi Jinping to do the heavy lifting.

Why China Actually Has Skin in the Game

Bessent's logic holds up. China is the world's largest crude oil importer. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, more than half of China's crude imports in 2024 came from the Middle East. About 10% came directly from Iran.

Nearly ALL of Iran's crude exports go to China. So Beijing is simultaneously Iran's biggest customer and the country most economically damaged by the blockade.

"China has a much bigger interest in reopening the strait than the U.S. does," Bessent told CNBC.

What Trump and Xi Actually Agreed To

Trump met with Xi Jinping at a two-day summit in Beijing on Thursday. A White House official told CNBC that the two leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz must reopen.

The official statement: "The two sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy. President Xi also made clear China's opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use."

That last part is pointed. Iran has reportedly been pushing a toll system for ships crossing Hormuz — a non-starter for every major shipping nation on Earth.

The Chinese Readout Tells a Different Story

Chinese state media told a different story. According to Xinhua, China's official state news agency, the leaders merely "exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation." Hormuz was NOT specifically mentioned in the Chinese readout.

When Washington says there was an agreement and Beijing's state media doesn't confirm the specifics, one of them is managing expectations. Most outlets glossed right past this discrepancy.

Wright's Timeline: Summer Reopening

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC's Brian Sullivan on Friday that the strait will reopen "sometime this summer at the latest."

That's more aggressive than the EIA's earlier projection, which pegged a possible reopening in late May with full market recovery not until 2027. Wright's public optimism either reflects real intelligence about the state of negotiations — or it's political messaging designed to calm energy markets. Possibly both.

Cabinet secretaries don't usually freelance on war timeline predictions.

The Ground Reality Hasn't Changed

Wikipedia's running account of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis has been tracking developments in real time. At least 17 merchant ships have been damaged, 7 abandoned, 2 captured, 12 seafarers killed or missing. One tugboat sunk. A port worker killed in Bahrain.

Iran has blockaded the strait since early March, according to CNBC, following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian leaders. Tehran is now claiming sovereign control over the waterway — a position no international body recognizes — and peace talks remain stalemated.

The U.S. has countered with its own blockade of Iranian ports. No oil has been loaded at Iran's main export terminal, Kharg Island, since the blockade began.

The Two-Track Strategy

The U.S. is now running a two-track pressure campaign: military and economic blockade on one side, diplomatic outsourcing to Beijing on the other. That's an unusual position — asking the country you're in a trade war with to solve your Middle East energy crisis.

If China delivers, Bessent looks like a genius and Wright's summer timeline holds. If Beijing's behind-the-scenes influence on Tehran turns out to be overstated — and given that Chinese state media didn't even confirm the Hormuz discussion happened — then the optimism coming out of Washington this week is getting well ahead of the facts.

Energy markets are watching every word. Regular people are paying the price at the pump. The gap between what officials say in TV interviews and what actually gets confirmed on the ground is where the real story lives.