The Big Shift Since Tuesday

When we last reported, Trump had called off a strike on Iran and given diplomacy 'a few days.' Since then, the situation has changed fast — and the most important development has nothing to do with bombs.

Trump went on camera and publicly neutered his closest regional ally.

'Whatever I Want'

Asked about Netanyahu's role in any Iran decision, Trump told reporters Wednesday that the Israeli prime minister will do "whatever I want him to do." According to CBS News, Trump also said he's "in no hurry" to make a deal.

The subtext is clear: Netanyahu does NOT get a vote here. Trump is running this, and Israel is along for the ride.

The 'Hair on Fire' Phone Call

Behind the scenes, things got heated. According to Axios, Trump and Netanyahu had a difficult, lengthy phone call on Tuesday, May 19. One source told Axios that "Bibi's hair was on fire after the call."

Why? Because Trump told Netanyahu directly that Washington was continuing to pursue mediated negotiations — NOT restarting military operations.

Netanyahu had been expecting the opposite. According to U.S. officials speaking to CNN and reported by Firstpost, Trump had previously signaled to Netanyahu on a Sunday call that a fresh military operation — reportedly codenamed "Operation Sledgehammer" — was being prepared for early this week.

Within 24 hours, that changed. Gulf allies — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — asked Trump to hold off and let diplomacy breathe. Trump obliged. Netanyahu was left flatfooted.

Israel Is Now a Passenger

According to the New York Times, Israel has been largely cut out of the peace talks entirely. Israel fought in this war. It took casualties. It has real security stakes if Iran walks away from negotiations without giving up meaningful nuclear concessions.

And now it has no seat at the table.

Netanyahu's argument — that delay only helps Iran drag out talks without making real concessions — is not unreasonable. Iran has a documented history of using negotiations as stalling tactics while advancing its programs. But Trump is betting that Gulf Arab pressure plus Pakistan's mediation can produce something real.

Pakistan Is the Unlikely Middleman

Pakistan is now the central diplomatic broker in one of the most consequential negotiations on earth.

Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir traveled to Tehran on Thursday carrying a new U.S. message, according to Iran's ISNA news agency. Iranian state media confirmed Iran is actively reviewing the latest U.S. proposals. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told Nour News — an outlet close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council — that the current exchanges are built on Iran's 14-point framework, which demands a definitive end to the war on all fronts, release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to what Tehran calls "piracy" against Iranian commercial vessels.

A country that just weeks ago was trading strikes with the United States is now submitting a 14-point wishlist. Washington is apparently negotiating off that document.

The Strait of Hormuz Threat Is Real Enough to Spook Shipping

Separately, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to push the war "beyond the region" if the U.S. or Israel resume attacks, promising what it called "crushing blows in places you cannot even imagine."

And Iran is now trying to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz — charging fees for ship passage. The New York Times reports that shipping industry analysts say Iran is unlikely to successfully close the strait, but the threat alone has rattled markets and insurers. Roughly 20% of global oil trade flows through that chokepoint. Any real interdiction attempt would send energy prices sharply higher.

The Target List Isn't Going Anywhere

The military option hasn't disappeared. According to the New York Times, U.S. target planners have a substantial list ready — Iranian energy facilities left untouched in previous strikes, the deep underground nuclear storage site at Isfahan, and missile sites that have apparently been expanded since the conflict began.

Trump met with top advisers to go over these options, per Axios. The military posture hasn't been stood down. It's been paused.

A "hardline Iranian general" — unnamed in current reports but described by CBS News as linked to major attacks domestically and abroad over the past decades — has reportedly seized influence in the Iranian negotiating structure. His identity matters enormously for whether any deal is real or performative.

Oil Markets and the Bottom Line

Oil prices remain elevated. Brent crude has been trading above $100 since the conflict escalated, and the Hormuz threat isn't helping. Every dollar per barrel of oil increase is a tax on every American who drives a car, heats a home, or buys groceries that were shipped on a truck.

Diplomacy may work here. But the U.S. is negotiating with a regime that is simultaneously threatening "crushing blows in places you cannot even imagine" while asking for its frozen assets back. Iran's 14-point framework demands are not the demands of a country that thinks it lost.

Trump can call off strikes and say he's in no hurry. That's a strategy. But strategies need results. If these talks collapse — and Iran's history suggests they might — the target list at Isfahan and those missile sites will still be there. So will the bill for the delay.