The Scrub: What Actually Happened

SpaceX had Starship V3 fully fueled and the countdown running inside Thursday's 90-minute launch window — which opened at 6:30 p.m. ET — when things fell apart at T-40 seconds.

Elon Musk posted on X that a hydraulic pin holding the launch tower arm in place did not retract. SpaceX recycled the countdown multiple times before calling the scrub entirely.

The retry window opens Friday at 5:30 p.m. CT, according to Musk. Federal air traffic warnings cited by CNN put the earliest Eastern attempt at 6:15 p.m. ET.

Why This Launch Is Different

This is the first flight of Version 3 — a ground-up redesign of the most powerful rocket ever built.

Starship V3 stands 408 feet tall and generates 18 million pounds of thrust, according to Livemint's reporting on the IPO prospectus. It's equipped with third-generation Raptor 3 engines, upgraded avionics, a new booster with one fewer grid fin, and a redesigned fuel system in the upper stage meant to stop propellant leaks that plagued previous versions. According to NPR, the booster also carries test ports for a future in-orbit refueling system — critical for any Moon or Mars mission.

The mission profile includes deploying 20 mock Starlink satellites on a sub-orbital trajectory about 17 minutes after liftoff, plus two modified Starlink satellites scanning the heat shield in real time. Some heat shield tiles were deliberately painted white to simulate damage — SpaceX is testing how to detect problems before they kill a mission.

Neither the booster nor the upper stage will be caught by the launch tower this flight. Both are planned for soft ocean landings — booster in the Atlantic, Starship in the Indian Ocean. This is a shakedown flight, not a trophy run.

The IPO and the Bottom Line

SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus on Wednesday, May 20. The Starship launch was scheduled for Thursday, May 21. That sequencing is no accident.

According to CNBC, SpaceX has spent more than $15 billion on the Starship program. The space segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue but posted a $657 million operating loss in 2025. In Q1 2026 alone, the launch business ran a $662 million operating loss, according to NPR's reporting.

Starlink is the only thing keeping this company profitable. The connectivity unit pulled in $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, per CNBC. That's 61% of total company sales.

SpaceX is a Starlink company that is betting its future on Starship. Investors buying into a $1.7-to-$2 trillion valuation are being asked to believe that Starship will eventually scale the way Falcon 9 did. A clean Friday launch would make that ask easier. A fiery failure would complicate it — though Franco Granda, senior researcher at PitchBook, told NPR that even a bad test wouldn't necessarily tank the IPO, just cool investor excitement "quite dramatically."

Missed Context

Most outlets frame this as a pass/fail moment for the IPO, but the mission objectives matter more than the narrative.

SpaceX isn't trying to catch the booster, isn't flying to orbit, and explicitly told investors it isn't expecting perfection. The goals: get the V3 engines lit, get the upper stage through max-Q, deploy the mock satellites, test the heat shield imaging system, and put both vehicles in the ocean without a fireball.

V3 development was rocky. According to TechCrunch, one of the first V3 boosters exploded during ground testing in November 2025, and a Starship upper stage was destroyed in a separate ground incident before the program reached this point, per Livemint. Two explosive ground tests before your first flight matters — and most IPO coverage is sidelining it.

This is also the first Starship flight since October 2025 — a seven-month gap. SpaceX spent that entire stretch developing and testing V3. The scrub extends that gap by at least one more day.

The Power Structure

The IPO filing confirms what many have suspected: Elon Musk is SpaceX in a way that has no parallel in public markets.

Musk holds just over 6.42 billion total shares — roughly 850 million Class A shares (1 vote each) and nearly 5.6 billion Class B super-voting shares (10 votes each), according to TechCrunch. Post-IPO, his voting power drops below its current 85% but stays above 50%. He cannot be fired. He controls the board. He can execute a merger — say, with Tesla — without shareholder approval.

Public investors buying Class A shares will own a piece of the revenue. They will own essentially zero governance. The IPO filing says so directly: shareholders "will not have the same protections afforded to shareholders of companies that are subject to all of the corporate governance requirements of Nasdaq."

Ann Lipton, professor of law at Tulane University, wrote last week that Musk is systematically eliminating the three main levers shareholders use to discipline CEOs: voting power, legal challenges, and regulatory oversight. SpaceX incorporated in Texas specifically to operate under a more permissive legal regime.

Buyers should know exactly what they're purchasing. They're buying Starlink revenue exposure and a bet on Musk's execution — with zero real ability to course-correct if things go sideways.

What Happens Friday

The 90-minute window opens at 5:30 p.m. CT. The hydraulic pin issue needs to be resolved overnight.

If V3 launches cleanly and hits its mission objectives, SpaceX walks into its roadshow with momentum. If it explodes, the company will call it a test, remind everyone that Falcon 9 didn't fly perfectly on its first try either, and proceed anyway.

Either way, the IPO is happening. The only question is at what price — and whether the people writing the checks fully understand that they're betting on one man, not a board-governed company.