What's New Since Our Last Report

Our previous coverage confirmed OpenAI's confidential IPO filing. Now SpaceX filed its S-1 publicly on Wednesday, targeting a June 12 listing on the Nasdaq. The target valuation: $1.75 trillion to $2.3 trillion, according to IG International market analyst Fabien Yip. That would make it the largest IPO in history — by a wide margin.

Anthropic is reportedly in talks for a new funding round at a $900 billion valuation, with traders on Kalshi placing 69% odds it also files for an IPO in 2026, per CNBC.

The Numbers

SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in its latest quarter, following a $4.94 billion loss for full-year 2025, according to CNBC. Its S-1 states that it has "a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future."

Starlink brought in $3.26 billion in revenue last quarter — 69% of total revenue — and it's the ONLY profitable segment. SpaceX's space business lost $619 million on an operating basis. Its AI unit lost $2.5 billion.

OpenAI reportedly generated $13.1 billion in revenue for 2025, according to CNBC, with no annual profit reported.

Anthropic's 2025 revenues aren't fully clear, but reports say it's pacing toward a second-quarter profit at close to $11 billion in annual revenue — its first-ever profitable quarter, per CNBC.

For comparison: Deutsche Bank analyst Adrian Cox noted that Berkshire Hathaway posted over $350 billion in revenue last year. SpaceX did $18.67 billion. OpenAI did $13.1 billion. Yet traders on Polymarket give 56% odds SpaceX closes its first trading day above $2.2 trillion — above Berkshire's current $1.03 trillion market cap.

Wall Street Is Sounding Alarms

John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks, told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe: "I see it as a market top. Everybody knows the top is pretty close to being around and usually it is advertised by these giant IPOs. Back in 1999, we saw the same kind of thing."

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett — one of the most widely-followed strategists on Wall Street — warned that mega-IPOs risk creating a bubble comparable to the Roaring '20s, per Bloomberg.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, told CNBC that "little is known" about SpaceX's financials given how long it stayed private, with Elon Musk controlling 85% of the voting shares. Retail investors buying SpaceX stock would have essentially zero governance power.

Jim Cramer's Structural Concern

Jim Cramer told his Mad Money audience that the real danger is the float size — the sliver of shares actually made available to the public. If underwriters release only a small percentage of shares into a market starved for SpaceX exposure, basic supply-and-demand could detach the stock price from any rational valuation. Cramer floated the possibility of SpaceX reaching a $6 trillion valuation shortly after IPO — which would make it more valuable than Nvidia's current $5.4 trillion, according to Motley Fool's analysis of his comments.

He also flagged the capital flow problem: when multiple trillion-dollar IPOs hit simultaneously, investors sell existing holdings to fund new purchases. That creates downward pressure on the broader market — not just hype about new listings.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Missing

Most outlets are framing this as an exciting landmark moment. None of these three companies — SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic — has delivered sustained annual profit.

The global IPO market raised $42.6 billion across 251 transactions in Q1 2026, a 45% year-over-year increase in proceeds, per KPMG data cited by IG International. The entire pipeline for the rest of 2026 could dwarf every U.S. listing combined since 2022.

These companies stayed private for an unusually long time, meaning early investors and insiders are the ones cashing out. Retail buyers are last in line at the highest possible prices.

What This Means for Retail Investors

If you're a retail investor who didn't get in at the $300-per-share private round, you're being handed the bag at the finish line.

SpaceX is a genuinely impressive company with real technology. But "impressive technology" and "sound investment at $2 trillion with no profit" are two completely different things.

The 1999 comparison comes from multiple credentialed strategists who watched that market before. Regular investors should read the actual S-1 language: SpaceX said it may never be profitable. That sentence deserves attention.