The Verdict Is Done. The Real Battle Just Started.

The jury in Oakland took less than two hours. Nine members. Unanimous. Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI is gone.

Now both men are racing to the public markets with valuations that would have seemed delusional two years ago — and the IPO timelines are already locked in.

SpaceX Moves First — June 12 Is the Date

Musk's SpaceX, which merged with his AI company xAI in February, is targeting a Nasdaq listing on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, according to reporting from Yahoo Finance via Proactive Investors. The company was valued at $1.25 trillion following that merger.

SpaceX's IPO prospectus was expected to be filed this week, according to CNBC, with a hard timeline in place.

This is a company that now bundles rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and an AI competitor to ChatGPT under one roof. Investors buying in are betting on all three at once.

OpenAI's Numbers Are Staggering — If You Believe Them

OpenAI closed a $122 billion private funding round in March at a post-money valuation of $852 billion. Anchor investors included SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia, according to Yahoo Finance's Proactive Investors report.

The company is now generating roughly $2 billion in revenue per month and claims more than 900 million weekly active ChatGPT users.

The target for the public offering: up to $1 trillion valuation, raising approximately $60 billion — which would surpass every previous technology IPO by a significant margin. For reference, according to CNBC, only two tech companies — Facebook and Alibaba — have ever hit even $100 billion in valuation on their first day of trading on U.S. exchanges.

The Timeline Is Already Drawn

According to Yahoo Finance's Proactive Investors reporting, OpenAI's expected path looks like this:

• File confidentially with the SEC during the current quarter (Q2 2026)
• SEC review through the summer
• Public offering launch in October or November

OpenAI has been holding informal talks with Wall Street banks and has hired key finance executives for investor relations. The corporate restructuring — from a capped-profit entity into a public benefit corporation — was completed in late 2025, removing the structural barrier that previously made a traditional listing impossible.

What the Trial Actually Settled — And What It Didn't

Mainstream coverage, particularly from The Guardian, is framing this as Altman's "resounding victory." The analysis is more complicated.

The jury didn't rule that OpenAI honored its nonprofit mission. MIT Technology Review correctly pointed out that the verdict only addressed timing — Musk brought his claims too late, exceeding the three-year statute of limitations. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers immediately adopted the advisory jury's finding.

The core question — whether OpenAI actually broke its founding contract as a nonprofit — was never adjudicated on the merits. Most outlets have downplayed this procedural reality.

Musk had sought $130 billion or more in damages, the removal of Altman as CEO, and the dismantling of the for-profit structure. According to The Guardian, he also demanded the for-profit arm transfer roughly $150 billion back to the nonprofit. None of that was ever evaluated on its merits. A procedural clock killed the case.

What Musk's Loss Actually Cost OpenAI — Almost Everything

Had the case gone the other way, OpenAI's IPO would have been in serious jeopardy. The Yahoo Finance report is blunt: a verdict for Musk "could have derailed" the entire offering. Professor Sarah Kreps, director of the Tech Policy Institute at Cornell University, told The Guardian the ruling "reassures investors" and protects OpenAI's Microsoft partnership and future fundraising.

"Purely nonprofit models are difficult to sustain at the cutting edge," Kreps said.

OpenAI is a for-profit company now. The nonprofit wrapper is largely vestigial. Whether that's right or wrong is a separate debate — but the mission has fundamentally shifted.

What Mainstream Media Is Getting Wrong

CNBC and The Guardian are both leaning into the "theater is over, now comes substance" framing — quoting Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management, who told CNBC: "Now we get to the substance of seeing what these companies can do to really build massive businesses around AI."

Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI has had to answer publicly — under SEC scrutiny — exactly how they make money at these valuations long-term. OpenAI is burning cash at a historic rate to stay competitive. SpaceX's xAI merger is brand new and untested as a combined entity.

At $1 trillion, OpenAI would need to justify a valuation roughly 50 times its annualized revenue. That's an extraordinary bet on future growth.

What This Means for Investors

Two of the most polarizing figures in tech are about to offer stock in companies with stratospheric valuations, real but unproven long-term profit models, and leadership histories that include a board coup at OpenAI and a government contract war at SpaceX.

The AI boom is real. The businesses may be real. But $1 trillion on a company generating $24 billion annually is a faith-based investment — not a math-based one.

Buyer knows the risk.