The Numbers Are Real

The Brookings Institution estimates the U.S. saw net negative migration of between 10,000 and 295,000 people in 2025. This would mark the first time in at least 50 years, possibly since 1929, that more people left than arrived.

According to Pew Research Center, an estimated 180,000 U.S. citizens emigrated in 2025 alone. The Association of Americans Resident Overseas puts the total American expat population at 5.5 million as of October 2024. World Population Review puts that figure closer to 8 million.

The U.S. government doesn't officially track how many Americans live abroad. The only hard federal number comes from the Treasury Department's quarterly list of citizenship renunciations.

Before 2009, 200 to 400 people renounced their citizenship per year. By 2025, that number is approaching 5,000. Analysts at Global Citizen Solutions estimate global demand for renunciation appointments now exceeds 30,000. Those numbers continue rising, especially after the renunciation fee dropped from $2,350 to $450 last month.

Who's Actually Leaving

Expats used to be a specific type: adventurous, credentialed, often wealthy. That's changing.

"Previously, the Americans leaving were super-adventurous and well-credentialed," Jen Barnett, founder of relocation consultancy Expatsi, told The Wall Street Journal. "Now they're ordinary people, like me."

Barnett relocated to Yucatán, Mexico in 2024 and now runs a growing business helping others do the same. Expatsi's Move Abroad Con in San Diego on May 9-10 drew 600 attendees — double the inaugural event. A sampling of 218 attendees found:

• 89% cited political reasons
• 73% cited adventure and personal growth
• 57% cited saving money
• Average monthly budget: $3,856
• Two-thirds plan to move within two years

Jesse Derr, 41, and his wife Jess Yeastadt, 45, drove five hours from Phoenix to attend. They're weighing Mexico. Derr points to abortion policy and voting rights rulings as reasons.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Getting Wrong

CNBC and The Independent both emphasize the political angle — Trump policies, reproductive rights, immigration crackdowns. Those are real factors. But 57% of people at Move Abroad Con cited cost of living as a reason to leave.

A November 2025 Gallup poll found one in five Americans wants to permanently move abroad — double the figure from ten years ago. That trend started accelerating well before 2025. Inflation, housing costs, healthcare, and stagnant wages have been grinding Americans down for years across multiple administrations.

The Independent calls it a "cost of living crisis" in the same breath as "divisive politics" but then spends most of its coverage on the political angle.

The reality: both things are true simultaneously. Some people are fleeing Trump's America. Others are fleeing $4,000 monthly rent and $600 insulin. Collapsing the story into a single political narrative — from either direction — misses a larger picture.

The Affordability Math

The State Department estimates 1.6 million Americans currently live in Mexico — the largest concentration of U.S. expats anywhere in the world. Nearly all 27 EU member states have seen record levels of Americans arriving, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

Why Mexico? Why Portugal? Why Colombia?

Because in those places, $3,856 a month — the average budget of Move Abroad Con attendees — buys a genuinely good life. In Phoenix, San Diego, or New York, that same $3,856 buys a one-bedroom apartment and groceries, if you're lucky.

Government spending, Federal Reserve policy, zoning laws that strangle housing supply, and healthcare costs that have no parallel in the developed world are bipartisan failures built up over decades. Blaming any single administration entirely misses that.

The Citizenship Renunciation Signal

The renunciation numbers represent the strongest signal of genuine, permanent intent.

When someone renounces U.S. citizenship, they're paying a fee, appearing before a consular officer, and legally severing ties with the country. It's a serious, irreversible step.

The jump from 400 renunciations per year to nearly 5,000 in 2025 — with demand estimated at 30,000+ — is significant. The fee reduction from $2,350 to $450 removes a major obstacle.

Global Citizen Solutions noted: "The narrowing of the gap between wanting to leave, planning to leave, and questioning whether to sever the legal bond entirely is itself the most significant finding."

What This Actually Means

Forty-two percent of Americans have considered relocating abroad, according to Global Citizen Solutions research cited by the Boston Globe. One in five told Gallup they'd like to leave permanently.

When the country that invented the concept of people moving toward it starts bleeding people in the other direction, something structural is broken. The political framing — left or right — obscures that.

Politicians on both sides should confront these numbers. They represent a verdict on decades of governance. The people leaving aren't all coastal liberals fleeing conservative policy. They're also retirees who can't afford healthcare, young people priced out of homeownership, and families who calculated they're better off somewhere else.

That's a failure that belongs to everyone who's run this country for the last 30 years.

No party escapes that.