The Strait Is Still Closed. The Money Is Already Moving.

The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran entered its fourth week, according to ABC News — but don't mistake that for normal. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, remains under Iran's effective control. The U.S. naval blockade of Iran's ports is still active. And 1,600 vessels with 20,000 seafarers are still stranded in the Gulf, according to Middle East Eye.

Brent crude is sitting above $107 a barrel. Global prices are up more than 50% since the war started on February 28. That's the backdrop for the first major wave of corporate earnings reports since this crisis began.

BP Doubled Profits. Exxon Collapsed. Same War, Opposite Results.

BP posted $3.2 billion in first-quarter profit — more than double what it made in the same period last year, according to Reuters via Middle East Eye. The company called its performance "exceptional." That's the highest profit BP has recorded since 2023.

TotalEnergies, the Paris-based firm, reported a roughly 30% jump in profits, according to ABC News. Shareholders got buybacks and bigger dividends.

Now flip it: Chevron's profits fell by more than a third. Exxon's profits plunged 45% compared to the first quarter of last year, according to ABC News.

Same oil shock. Wildly different outcomes. Why?

Timothy Fitzgerald, a professor of business economics at the University of Tennessee who studies the petroleum industry, told ABC News the key is whether a company could actually get oil to market while dodging the logistical chaos in the Gulf. Companies that relied on Hormuz routes got hammered. Companies positioned elsewhere printed money.

Some firms also got burned by financial hedges — contracts meant to protect against a price drop. When prices spiked instead, those hedges turned into losses. Fitzgerald's plain-English summary: "If you're a company that depends on bringing product through the Strait of Hormuz, your business has been massively disrupted."

Who's Actually Winning — And How Much

The numbers are staggering when you zoom out. Climate charity Global Witness, in analysis conducted for The Guardian, found that major oil and gas companies made over $30 million an hour in the first month of the war.

At the executive level, the windfalls are personal too. According to Middle East Eye:

• Linda Cook, CEO of Harbour Energy, saw her shareholdings rise by more than £4 million to a total of £26 million in the month after U.S.-Israeli strikes began.
• Shell CEO Wael Sawan added nearly £1.8 million to his personal stake.
• Chevron CEO Michael Wirth saw more than £44 million added to the value of his holdings.
• Equinor, the Norwegian firm supplying much of the UK's gas, saw its share price jump over 45%.

These are real people whose personal wealth spiked while the crisis unfolded.

What This Means for Regular People

Global oil markets don't care where the disruption happens. Jagannadha Pawan Tamvada, a professor of business economics at Kingston University, told Middle East Eye that "disruptions in supply anywhere in the system raises prices everywhere." You don't have to live near the Strait of Hormuz to pay for it.

In the UK, household energy bills are projected to rise by as much as £300 ($406) per year starting in July, according to Middle East Eye. A recent poll found 44% of the British public would be unable to afford those increases.

In Vietnam, Wikipedia's documentation of the 2026 Iran war fuel crisis shows motorcyclists queueing at gas stations in Hanoi as early as March 10. The Philippines also faced a documented fuel crisis. The pain is global and it's landing hardest on people with the least margin.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets are running with a clean villain narrative: Big Oil is profiting while people suffer. Exxon and Chevron — two of the biggest American oil companies — are actually losing money compared to last year. The winners are largely European firms like BP and TotalEnergies, and Norwegian state-controlled Equinor.

Right-leaning coverage has largely focused on the geopolitical and military dimensions while downplaying the economic squeeze hitting American consumers and allied populations. Gas prices don't care about your preferred news channel.

This is a complex disruption with uneven winners, real losers, and millions of ordinary people absorbing costs they didn't choose and can't escape.

The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. The ceasefire is holding — barely. And the next earnings cycle will tell us whether this gets worse before it gets better.