The New Number: 37%

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,507 registered voters, conducted May 11-15 with a 2.8-point margin of error, has Trump at 37% approval and 59% disapproval.

According to New York Times polling averages, no president has stayed below 38% approval for more than a few days in the past 17 years. Trump has remained below that threshold for weeks.

Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin polling average put Trump's net approval at -18.9 as of May 13 — also a second-term record low, with a 58.1% disapproval and 38.5% approval.

What's Driving It: Iran and Gas

The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Since that date, according to Forbes, Trump's weekly approval has NOT risen above 36% in Reuters/Ipsos tracking.

Gas prices have gone up 50% since the conflict started. The average cost of a gallon of regular gas hit $4.51 as of May 18, according to The Independent. That's the first time prices have exceeded $4 since 2022 — and they hit that mark in April.

Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 25% of the world's oil is transported. Disrupting that corridor disrupts global oil prices. Every American filling their tank is feeling this war directly.

His Own Party Is Wobbling

According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted May 8-11, 30% of Republicans say Trump hasn't clearly explained his goals for the Iran war.

Half of Republicans say the Trump administration is at least partly to blame for high gas prices, per the same survey.

On cost of living specifically — the issue Trump campaigned hardest on — the share of Republicans who say he's handled it well has dropped 14 points since January, according to Forbes citing the NYT/Siena data.

Only 28% of all voters say Trump has handled cost of living well. 69% disapprove of his handling of it, with Republicans making up a third of that disapproval bloc, according to The Independent.

Trump ran on lowering costs. He's now getting criticized on costs by his own voters.

The Economy Numbers Are Ugly

The NYT/Siena poll asked voters to rate the economy. Here's what they said:

• 49% said the economy is "poor" — an 11-point jump since January
• 27% said "only fair"
• 18% said "good"
• 4% said "excellent"

76% of registered voters rate the economy as either poor or only fair. A combined 22% think it's good or excellent.

What the Administration Is Saying

Trump and senior officials have publicly argued that high gas prices are a "temporary side effect" of the Iran conflict and will drop once it ends.

The problem: it's not ending. According to The Independent, the U.S., Israel, and Iran have failed to reach a peace deal. Negotiations have stalled. Half of poll respondents say they don't believe the U.S. will successfully end Iran's nuclear program. More than half say the costs of starting this war won't outweigh the benefits.

80% of respondents expect gas prices to go up even more, per Forbes.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Missing

Left-leaning outlets like the New York Times are leading with "Trump's approval sinks" framing. But they're burying a more important structural story: this is a policy problem, not just a perception problem.

The Iran war caused an oil shock. The oil shock raised gas prices 50%. Gas prices are hammering household budgets. Voters are responding to real economic pain.

This isn't a messaging failure Trump can fix with a better press conference. This is a consequences-of-war problem that won't resolve until the conflict does — and nobody can say when that is.

Right-leaning media has largely downplayed or ignored these numbers. That's doing their audience a disservice. You can't course-correct what you won't acknowledge.

The Bottom Line

Trump is in historically bad polling territory, driven by a war that's raising prices on every American who drives, heats their home, or buys anything that gets shipped. His own base is questioning both the strategy and the costs. The exit ramp — a peace deal — isn't visible.

Regular people are paying $4.51 a gallon and watching that number go up. They don't care about polling averages. They care about what it costs to fill their tank.

Right now, that answer is: more than it used to.