The Trump-Netanyahu Split Is Real

Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a tense phone call over the Iran situation, according to Axios. Trump is pushing Iran to "sign the document" — get a deal done now. Netanyahu wants a military greenlight to resume strikes.

Those are opposite positions.

Trump told congressional members at the White House picnic Tuesday that the war would end "very quickly" and that "you're going to see oil prices plummet." That's a political promise, not a military assessment. Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Wednesday that Tehran sees signs the U.S. is seeking to restart the war — not end it.

Both sides are reading the same room differently.

Senate Votes 50-47 to Force the War Powers Debate

The Senate advanced a measure Tuesday — by a 50-47 vote — directing Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from the Iran conflict unless Congress formally authorizes continued operations or declares war, according to reporting by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times.

The decisive vote came from Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who had voted AGAINST similar measures multiple times this year. He flipped.

Cassidy just lost his primary Saturday to Rep. Julia Letlow, who got 44.8% of the vote. Cassidy got 24.8%. Trump endorsed Letlow. With nothing left to lose politically, Cassidy returned to Washington and announced on X that "the White House and Pentagon have left Congress in the dark on Operation Epic Fury" and that "no congressional authorization or extension can be justified" until they get answers.

Three other Republicans voted yes: Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). The lone Democrat to vote NO was Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called it momentum. Whether this measure survives a House vote or a presidential veto remains unclear, and mainstream coverage isn't addressing that question.

The Ahmadinejad 'Regime Change' Story Is Either Explosive or Absurd

The New York Times published a report this week claiming the U.S. and Israel — under "Operations Roaring Lion" and "Epic Fury" — planned to install Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran's new leader. Yes, the same Ahmadinejad who spent his presidency calling for Israel's destruction and denying the Holocaust.

The plan allegedly went sideways on day one when an Israeli strike intended to free Ahmadinejad from house arrest instead injured him, after which he reportedly became "disillusioned" with the whole thing, according to an associate quoted by the Times.

ZeroHedge flagged this story as one that "defies belief" and should be taken "with a big grain of salt." The sourcing is anonymous U.S. officials. The logic is strained. It's possible this is real covert strategy, possible it's deliberate disinformation, and possible it's a bureaucratic game of telephone that the Times ran with. None of those options reflect well on anyone involved.

Wait for someone to go on record before drawing conclusions.

Supertankers Are Moving — But Iran Is Running the Toll Booth

Three Very Large Crude Carriers carrying a combined 6 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to Reuters. The Universal Winner (South Korean-flagged, 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude), Yuan Gui Yang (Chinese-flagged, 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude), and Ocean Lily (Hong Kong-flagged, 2 million barrels of Qatari and Iraqi crude) — all heading to Asian ports.

Iran's state TV explicitly said South Korea followed China's example by coordinating with the IRGC Navy to arrange passage. Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirmed 26 vessels transited "in coordination" with Iranian authorities in the prior 24 hours.

Iran is not opening the strait. Iran is issuing permits. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority issued a formal protocol defining its "management supervision area" and requiring coordination with Iranian authorities for passage. Tehran is treating Hormuz as sovereign Iranian territory subject to its approval.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC Friday that "this is a card you can play once" — implying the bypass pipelines being built will eventually make Hormuz irrelevant. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber confirmed Wednesday the UAE's second Fujairah bypass pipeline is nearly 50% complete and will double export capacity by 2027. Al Jaber was blunt: even if conflict ends today, it takes four months to reach 80% of normal oil flows and until Q1-Q2 2027 for full normalization. More than 1 billion barrels have already been lost since the closure began.

The Inventory Numbers Tell a Different Story

Oil prices fell more than 5% Wednesday on deal optimism — WTI closed at $98.26, Brent at $105.02, according to CNBC. Markets are pricing hope.

The actual supply data contradicts that optimism. The DOE reported a crude inventory drawdown of 7.863 million barrels last week — against an expectation of 6 million. The API reported a 9.1 million barrel draw. Gasoline inventories just posted their 14th consecutive weekly decline. Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery hub for WTI futures — is draining fast, with analysts warning of "tank bottoms," the point at which storage falls below operational minimums.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being drained at a record rate of 9.92 million barrels per day — and more than 10% of total SPR capacity has been burned through in recent weeks, according to Bloomberg data cited by ZeroHedge.

Citibank warned clients Tuesday that markets are underpricing long-disruption risk and expect Brent to reach $120 near-term. Wood Mackenzie put the worst-case number at $200 per barrel if Hormuz stays closed through year-end.

Trump says prices will plummet. Citi and Wood Mackenzie say the math doesn't work that way. The reserves burning right now cannot be replaced quickly regardless of what gets signed.

What's Actually Happening

The U.S. and Israel disagree on strategy. Iran is running a permit system on the world's most critical oil chokepoint. The Senate is forcing a war powers confrontation. American oil reserves are draining at record speed.

A deal would help. But the damage is already baked in — and Americans will feel it at the pump long after whatever document eventually gets signed.