What Just Happened

Two new Republican bills dropped this week, and they're already fighting each other.

On May 11, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced the Gas Tax Suspension Act, S. 4485 — a 90-day pause on the 18.4-cent federal gas tax and the 24.4-cent diesel tax, with a presidential option to extend it another 90 days. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) went further the same day, proposing an 18-month suspension that also covers aviation gasoline and phases the tax back in gradually afterward. Van Drew is also pressuring states to follow suit — noting New Jersey's own gas tax runs 49 cents per gallon.

The Numbers Don't Lie

The average gas price hit $4.53 per gallon as of Thursday, according to AAA. Diesel is at $5.64. Both are up roughly 50% since the Iran war began February 28.

Suspending the federal gas tax would save the average driver less than $9 per month, according to an analysis from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

Meanwhile, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) puts the three-month cost at $10.5 billion — including roughly $3 billion in additional interest on borrowed money needed to fill the gap in the Highway Trust Fund. The Trust Fund is already headed toward insolvency by 2028. Hawley's 90-day bill alone would drain it seven weeks faster than currently projected.

Van Drew's 18-month version would carry dramatically larger fiscal costs.

Trump's Own Allies Are Revolting

Three major trucking industry groups came out Monday against the gas tax pause. The Associated General Contractors of America — a construction trade group that leans Republican — put it bluntly. Spokesman Brian Turmail told CNBC: "A gas tax holiday is a good way to blow a hole in the collection of revenue for funding highway and transit repairs, but it's a bad way to help drivers who are affected by higher gas prices."

These aren't progressive environmentalists or Democratic think tanks. These are the industries that depend on federal highway dollars. They build the roads. They drive the trucks. They know what happens when the Highway Trust Fund runs short — their contracts dry up.

Why the Savings Won't Actually Show Up

Even if the tax is suspended, drivers may not see 18 cents disappear from the pump.

The federal gas tax is collected at the wholesale level — from refiners and distributors, not directly at the gas station. There is no legal mechanism forcing retailers to pass savings to consumers. During Biden's 2022 gas tax holiday push — which ultimately went nowhere — the same criticism applied.

Clark Williams-Derry, analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told WIRED: "It's unlikely that oil prices, gasoline prices, diesel prices are going to fall back to where they were in February any time in the next couple months."

The underlying issue is geopolitical: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a chokepoint controlling roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Brent crude — a key global benchmark — was at $69 per barrel on average in 2025. It hit $144 on April 7 when the first ceasefire was announced. It's sitting around $105 now. The problem is a war without an end in sight, not a tax policy issue.

The Democrat Bills Still On The Table

Democrats already had bills sitting in Congress. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) introduced S. 4032, the Gas Prices Relief Act, in March. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) introduced a House companion bill, H.R. 7919. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) introduced H.R. 8600, which triggers a partial suspension whenever gas exceeds $3.99 per gallon.

Those Democratic proposals have been sitting longer than the Republican versions, though the press is now treating this primarily as a GOP story.

The Biden Precedent

This mirrors what Biden did in 2022. When inflation surged, Biden floated a gas tax holiday as political cover. It went nowhere and solved nothing.

Now Trump is proposing a policy that sounds good in a press release, costs real money, and won't move the needle at the pump — while the actual cause of high prices remains unresolved.

If Biden had done this, conservative media would likely criticize it heavily.

What It Means For You

If this passes in Hawley's 90-day form, you might see a few cents knocked off at the pump — if your station passes the savings through at all. The $1.35-per-gallon price surge would persist as long as the war continues.

What would happen instead: roads and bridges funded slightly less. A Highway Trust Fund that goes broke faster. And $10.5 billion added to the deficit.

This is a political move dressed as economic relief.