Georgia: Two Runoffs, One Big Mess

The May 19 primary night results are in, and Georgia is heading into not one but TWO Republican runoffs on June 16.

On the Senate side, Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley are heading to a runoff for the right to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, according to Decision Desk HQ via The Hill. Rep. Buddy Carter, who many thought was the frontrunner, didn't make it. Politico notes the result "extends a bitter intraparty fight and delays Republicans' ability to focus their attacks" on Ossoff.

On the governor's side, billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones are headed to a runoff after neither cleared 50%, according to Decision Desk HQ. Trump endorsed Jones. Jackson has been trying to brand himself as a Trump ally anyway, which makes this runoff a proxy fight over who actually owns the MAGA label in Georgia.

Brad Raffensperger — Georgia's Secretary of State and the man who told Trump there were no widespread fraud issues in 2020 — lost his primary bid. He's now the latest Trump critic to get knocked out of a Republican primary, per The Hill.

Meanwhile, Democrats got clean results. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination outright, avoiding a runoff entirely, according to both The Hill and Politico. Some Georgia Democrats had reservations about her record as mayor. She won anyway.

And two Republican-appointed Georgia Supreme Court justices — Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren — beat back Democratic-backed challengers, according to Decision Desk HQ. High-profile Democrats had waded into those races to try to flip the court's ideological balance. It didn't work.

Oregon: Kotek vs. Drazan, Round Two

Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek is set for a rematch against Republican state Rep. Christine Drazan, per Decision Desk HQ via The Hill. Kotek barely won their first matchup. This one could be just as close. Oregon is struggling with homelessness, drug problems, and a cost-of-living crisis — and Kotek hasn't fixed any of it. Drazan will have real ammunition.

Pennsylvania: Shapiro's Bench Wins, Progressives Win Too

Pennsylvania's governor race is officially set: Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro faces Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in November, according to Decision Desk HQ. Both advanced uncontested from their primaries.

In congressional races, Shapiro's preferred candidate — identified by Politico as Brooks — won a competitive Democratic primary and will face GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in a key November battleground.

In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, State Rep. Chris Rabb — self-described "troublemaker" and backed by Squad members — won the Democratic primary, per Politico. That's the nation's bluest House seat. He's going to Congress.

The Texas Earthquake

While everyone focused on Georgia and Kentucky Tuesday night, Trump dropped a grenade into Texas.

Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over sitting Sen. John Cornyn for the Texas Senate race. According to The Hill, this is "roiling" the primary. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Tuesday he still predicts the GOP will hold the Senate majority — but he's now watching his own conference's internal war heat up.

Cornyn was widely considered the stronger general election candidate. Paxton is under a cloud of legal trouble and controversy. Trump endorsed Paxton anyway. The Texas Senate race just became harder for Republicans than it needed to be.

Kentucky Cleanup: What's New

Andy Barr won the Kentucky GOP Senate primary over former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, per both The Hill and Politico. He's now on a glidepath to replace Mitch McConnell.

On the Democratic side, Charles Booker defeated Amy McGrath for the Kentucky Senate nomination, per Decision Desk HQ. Booker previously lost the 2020 Democratic primary to Amy McGrath. He's running uphill in deep-red Kentucky.

Alabama: Senate Race Still Unsettled

Alabama's crowded Senate race — opened up by Tommy Tuberville vacating the seat to run for governor — appeared headed for a runoff with no clear Republican winner by late Tuesday, according to Hindustan Times. Rep. Barry Moore is among the candidates. A June runoff appears likely.

Tuberville himself, now a gubernatorial candidate, is projected to face former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in the fall, per Decision Desk HQ. Jones pulled off a miracle Senate win in Alabama in 2017. He's a long shot here but not invisible.

What Changed

The real story is structural: Georgia's double runoff delays Republican unity heading into a competitive fall. The Texas Paxton endorsement could cost the GOP a safe Senate seat. And Pennsylvania progressives just won a primary that received scant attention from national outlets.

The midterm map is shifting in real time.