The Numbers Are Ugly. All of Them.

The national average for a gallon of regular gas stood at $4.56 as of May 20, 2026, according to AAA — up 49 cents from a month ago and $1.39 higher than one year ago.

Every single state now reports averages at or above $4. That's a first.

Georgia is the cheapest in the country at $4.01. California is the most expensive at $6.14. Washington state is at $5.79. Hawaii at $5.65. Oregon at $5.35.

This is what a global supply shock looks like.

What Triggered This

On February 28, 2026, President Trump launched military strikes against Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints.

Global oil markets immediately repriced the risk. According to GasBuddy's petroleum analysis head Patrick De Haan, WTI crude oil climbed to $105.33 per barrel by early May, up nearly $10 from the prior week's $95.94. Brent crude hit $112.03.

A sustained structural shift in global energy prices followed.

Trump's Defense — and What He's Not Saying

When asked directly about gas prices, Trump called them "peanuts" compared to preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, according to a New York Post clip circulated May 20.

"We cannot let them have a nuclear weapon. You want to see the world exploded? You want to see a problem? And this is peanuts," Trump said. "I appreciate everybody putting up with it for a little while. It won't be much longer."

That may be a legitimate strategic argument. But "won't be much longer" isn't a policy. And the 39.1 million Americans driving to Memorial Day destinations this weekend, according to AAA, aren't driving on rhetoric.

Trump has floated eliminating the federal gas tax for temporary relief. That's a 18.4-cent-per-gallon reduction. When you're paying $6 in California, that's noise.

California Is in a Class of Its Own — And It's Partly Self-Inflicted

California's crisis goes beyond the Iran war. The state has shut down two major oil refineries — Valero Benicia and Phillips 66 — and now imports 70% of its crude oil, according to the Western States Petroleum Association.

California — a state that between 1903 and 1936 was the nation's leading oil producer — now depends on foreign imports for nearly three-quarters of its crude supply.

The last tanker from the Middle East left through the Strait of Hormuz roughly ten days ago, according to Assemblyman David Tangipa (R-Fresno). Nothing new is coming from those markets.

Siva Gunda, vice chair of the California Energy Commission, told an Assembly oversight hearing that the state can confidently forecast stable gas supply only through mid-June — roughly six weeks out. After that, California will need to outbid Asian markets for shipments, and consumers foot that bill, Gunda said, as reported by KQED.

Tangipa is warning prices could hit $10 per gallon. "I believe we could very easily be around $10 gas," he told the Daily Signal. "It's about to get worse if we don't do anything about it."

What Mainstream Coverage Is Getting Wrong

Most coverage is framing this as either a Trump problem or a California problem. It's both — and more.

Left-leaning outlets are running with Governor Gavin Newsom's framing: "Trump's Iran war is costing Americans $1.5 billion more at the pump this week alone." That's a real number worth reporting. But Newsom skips over the 61.2-cent state gas tax California imposes — one of the highest in the nation — and the fact that his administration presided over the refinery shutdowns now gutting supply.

Right-leaning outlets focus heavily on California Democratic governors refusing to suspend the gas tax while ignoring that the underlying global supply shock traces directly to a military decision made in Washington.

Both California Republican candidates for governor — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — say they'd suspend the state gas tax. That'd help. But California's supply crisis runs deeper than tax relief can fix.

The Great Lakes Got Hammered Too

This isn't just a coastal story. De Haan of GasBuddy reported that Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois saw some of the sharpest and fastest price spikes in the country during early May. Diesel prices in parts of the Great Lakes region touched $6 per gallon — a record. Refinery outages compounded the Iran-driven supply squeeze in that region.

Battleground Michigan voters who backed Trump in 2024 are now paying above-average gas prices. That's a political reality the GOP needs to reckon with honestly.

What This Means for You

If you're driving anywhere this Memorial Day weekend, you're paying the most Americans have paid at the pump in years. If you're in California, it's going to get worse before it gets better — and "better" isn't guaranteed.

The Iran war may have strategic logic. Letting California shutter refineries for years while becoming dependent on Middle Eastern imports had zero strategic logic. Both things are true simultaneously.

Regular Americans are absorbing the cost of decisions made by politicians and military planners who don't swipe their own credit cards at the pump. 39.1 million people are traveling this weekend anyway — because life goes on.

But so does the bill.