The New Numbers

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index dropped to -45 in May, down from -38 in April, according to the Daily Caller's reporting on the Gallup poll released Friday, May 22.

That's the lowest reading since October 2022 — when Biden-era inflation was running near 9%.

Only 16% of Americans rate current economic conditions as "excellent" or "good." That's the lowest since April 2023. Meanwhile 49% say conditions are "poor" and 76% say things are getting worse — the highest "getting worse" reading since May 2023.

What's Driving This

The Iran war is the primary driver behind the sharp drop. Gas prices have gone from $2.90 per gallon in February — before the war began — to a projected $4.56 per gallon for Memorial Day weekend, according to GasBuddy as reported by the Union Leader. That's a 57% jump in roughly three months.

GasBuddy had initially projected the Memorial Day average would hit $4.48. Its latest estimate has come in higher, at $4.56.

CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released May 12, shows inflation running at 3.8% annually through April, with a 0.6% monthly increase — faster than expected. That's a three-year high.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is squeezing global oil supply. Americans are paying for it at the pump and in grocery stores.

Republicans Are Feeling It Too

Republicans still register net positive economic confidence overall, but per Gallup as reported by the Union Leader, Republican confidence in May hit its lowest point since Trump returned to office. That's a significant shift from the early 2025 optimism that followed the election.

Recent polling cited by the Daily Caller shows voters now trust Democrats over Republicans on economic issues. That's a reversal from where things stood a year ago.

What the White House Is Saying

White House spokesman Kush Desai gave the Daily Caller this statement: "As traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments continue pouring in."

That's a bet on the war ending. There's no timeline attached to that bet.

Desai also called Biden's economy a "disaster" and cited "Operation Epic Fury" as the cause of short-term disruptions. But voters aren't grading on a curve right now — they're grading on what a gallon of gas costs.

Trump's Own Words

Trump said this month that he does NOT consider the economic effects of the Iran war on Americans — "not even a little bit" — when asked whether cost-of-living concerns were pushing him toward a deal. That quote appeared in reporting from the Union Leader.

You can make the argument that strategic objectives matter more than gas prices. That's a defensible position. But saying you don't care "not even a little bit" about what Americans are paying is a different argument — and it lands very differently with voters who are choosing between filling their tank and buying groceries.

The Numbers That Matter

Memorial Day weekend gas is projected to be nearly $1.50 more per gallon than it was before the war. Inflation is running at its fastest pace in three years. And the president publicly said the economic pain isn't motivating his decision-making.

The Gallup index can recover — it bounced back from -58 in June 2022. But that recovery took years and a change in administration.

Right now, 76% of Americans think things are getting worse. Until either the war ends or prices drop, that number isn't moving.