The Numbers Are Real — and Surprising

As of May 15, 2026, 905,889 ballots have been returned in California's June 2 primary. That's according to data from Political Data Inc. (PDI), a nonpartisan research firm that tracks ballot returns in real time.

Here's the breakdown:

• 37% Republican — up 11 points from this same stage in the 2022 midterms
• 41% Democrat — down 13 points from 2022
• 22% Independent/other — up 2 points

In raw numbers: 334,791 Republican ballots returned versus 371,130 Democratic ballots. Democrats still hold the raw lead — but they outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1 in voter registration.

County-Level Data Makes It Worse for Democrats

In Orange County, Republicans are leading by more than 10,000 returned ballots, according to the Daily Wire.

But in San Diego County — where Democrats hold a registration majority — Republicans have posted an 11% turnout rate versus just 6% for Democrats and account for the majority of returned ballots.

Even in Los Angeles County, deep blue by any measure, Republicans are returning ballots at a 4% rate. Democrats are at 2%.

Democrats still lead in the City of LA itself due to registration advantages — but the margin of enthusiasm is not there.

The Explanation — and Why It's Only Half the Story

PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell gave two explanations to the New York Post.

First: Republicans may finally be returning to mail-in voting habits. "Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before Trump and other leaders discouraged it," Mitchell said. Trump's years of mail-in ballot skepticism suppressed GOP early returns in 2020 and 2022. If that's reversing, it's a structural shift.

Second: Mitchell says some Democrats are deliberately holding their ballots because the governor's race is a mess. California uses a top-two primary — meaning the two highest finishers, regardless of party, advance to November. With Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa all splitting the Democratic vote, some Democratic voters are waiting to see who has a shot before committing their ballot.

The fragmentation also signals a Democratic Party struggling to coalesce in its strongest state.

Who's Voting and Who Isn't

The early electorate is old and white. Voters 65 and older account for 54% of ballots returned. Voters aged 18 to 34 account for just 10%, according to PDI data cited by both Breitbart and Gateway Pundit.

White voters make up 67% of the early vote. Latino voters — a massive share of California's population — account for just 19%. Black voters, 11%.

Mitchell called this "typical of a low-turnout election" where habitual voters dominate early returns. This means the current picture could shift significantly before June 2.

Coverage and Context

Right-leaning outlets — Daily Wire, Breitbart, Gateway Pundit — are covering these numbers as a potential California realignment. Early primary ballots in mid-May, however, have limits as predictors of November outcomes. They reflect motivated base voters, mostly older and white, in a low-turnout cycle.

Mainstream national media has largely ignored this story. There's nothing here that flips California red in November. But there is a story worth covering: Democratic voter enthusiasm in California is measurably down, the governor's primary is fragmented, and Republicans are outperforming their registration numbers in county after county.

Reform California, a GOP advocacy group run by Carl DeMaio, is claiming partial credit — saying 1.5 million voter contacts through their early ballot program helped drive returns.

The Governor's Race Context

On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton is the frontrunner, with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco also on the ballot.

The Democratic side remains a five-way split: Becerra, Porter, Steyer, Mahan, and Villaraigosa. Democratic voters haven't consolidated behind a candidate. Some are sitting on their ballots waiting for clarity.

What This Actually Means

California isn't turning red. But California Democrats have a motivation problem and a candidate problem heading into a June primary. Republicans, meanwhile, appear to have finally shaken Trump-era skepticism about mail-in voting and are showing up.

If GOP turnout holds through Election Day and Democrats stay fractured, a Republican — most likely Hilton — could make the top-two and force a competitive November race for governor. The early data through May 15 suggests this scenario is possible.